Trump vs. Harris: Why This US Election Could Be Decided by the Closest Polls in a Long Time
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Trump vs. Harris: Why This US Election Could Be Decided by the Closest Polls in a Long Time

  • The 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has tightened to an intense battle, with poll numbers fluctuating in key swing states
  • Trump holds slim, often within-the-margin-of-error leads in several battleground states, while Harris has secured narrow advantages in Michigan and Nevada
  • As poll averages reveal razor-thin margins, both candidates are in a virtual dead heat, showing the uncertainty heading into Election Day

The race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is extremely close, with the latest polls indicating a dead heat in Georgia.

According to Forbes, Trump is only slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona, but his leads are all within the margins of error.

US election, facts on swing states emerge
US election, facts on swing states emerge. Photo credit: Anadolu via Getty Images
Source: Twitter

The Wisconsin race is incredibly close, with Trump leading 49% to 48% in the Emerson survey and 48.3% to 48% in Bloomberg's poll.

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The Quinnipiac poll shows the candidates tied at 48%, while the Washington Post-Schar poll has Harris leading 50% to 47%.

Key facts emerge about swings states

According to FiveThirtyEight's average, Harris is ahead by 0.2 points.

In Michigan, Kamala Harris is ahead by 49.6% to 46.5%, which is the largest lead in any state polled by Bloomberg.

However, it's important to note that this lead is still within the four-point margin of error.

Additionally, Harris' 49%-46% lead in Quinnipiac's polling, which has a margin of error of 2.9, is similar to her lead in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight's polling average, where she's up by 0.6 points.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are running a tight race in Nevada.

According to Bloomberg, Harris is leading by a tiny margin of 48.8% to 48.3%, but a recent AARP poll shows Trump ahead by 47% to 46%.

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The Washington Post-Schar poll has them tied at 48%, while the Wall Street Journal poll from October 11 showed Trump leading by 5 points.

It's worth noting that the margin of error in these polls is between 4 and 5 points. In FiveThirtyEight's polling average, Harris is leading by 0.1 points. New poll shows who is leading

Meanwhile, Legit.ng earlier reported that as global attention remains on the 2024 United States elections, reports indicate that Donald Trump is leading his rival, Kamala Harris.

A new poll from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), released on Wednesday, October 23, revealed that Trump, the Republican Party candidate, is leading Harris, the Democratic Party candidate, by 2 percentage points nationally, with 47% to her 45%.

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Source: Legit.ng

Authors:
Basit Jamiu avatar

Basit Jamiu (Editor) With more than 5 years of experience in the media (Ikeja Bird, Prime Progress, The Movee), Basit Jamiu works as an editor at Legit Nigeria. He started his journalism career after graduating from Ekiti State University in 2018. He is a 2024 Open Climate Fellow (West Africa), 2023 MTN Media Fellow, OCRP Fellow at ICIR, and Accountability Fellow at CJID. He can be reached via basit.jamiu@corp.legit.ng.