2026 World Cup: How Nigeria Could Overtake South Africa to Qualify Despite Draw vs Zimbabwe
- Nigeria's chances of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup took a blow after the draw against Zimbabwe
- The result left the Super Eagles in fourth place in Group C, six points behind group leaders South Africa
- However, Nigeria could still overtake Bafana Bafana to secure the automatic qualification spot in Group C
The Super Eagles of Nigeria are on the verge of missing out on the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but there is a chance to dramatically qualify ahead of South Africa.
Nigeria could potentially miss two consecutive FIFA World Cups if they fail to qualify, having also missed the 2022 edition held in Qatar, which Argentina won.
Source: Twitter
The Super Eagles beat Rwanda at the Amahoro Stadium in Kigali on matchday five to boost their chances of qualifying after a poor start of three points from the opening four games.
However, the chances were shattered after Nigeria's 1-1 draw against Zimbabwe at the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo on Tuesday evening.
The result leaves Nigeria on the edge with seven points from six games, six points behind South Africa who lead Group C with 13 points after winning both games this month.
Rwanda are second in the group with eight points, tied with Benin Republic, led by former Super Eagles coach Gernot Rohr, who also have eight points. Lesotho have six points while Zimbabwe have four points.
How Nigeria could still qualify
Nigerians were downcast after the draw in Uyo, with the majority realising that it will be dramatic, miraculous and near impossible for the country to qualify for the tournament.
According to FIFA, CAF have nine automatic slots, potentially rising to 10 via the intercontinental playoffs at the expanded 2026 World Cup, which will have 48 teams for the first time.
CAF’s qualification series has nine groups, with the group leaders automatically qualifying for the tournament, while the top four second-placed teams will partake in the playoff.
South Africa is seen as Nigeria's main opponent in Group C, and they currently have 13 points, six ahead of Nigeria in fourth with seven points.
Bafana Bafana are on course to pick the automatic slot, but in a dramatic situation, the Super Eagles could still beat them to it narrowly and leave them to compete for playoffs.
South Africa are at risk of getting points deduction from FIFA after fielding an ineligible Teboho Mokoena during the 2-0 win over neighbours Lesotho.
For Nigeria to have a chance at automatic qualification, the points deduction needs to come into effect, as it will reduce South Africa’s current points to 10, three ahead of Nigeria.
Also, if that happens, the Super Eagles must win their remaining four games, two home games against Rwanda and Benin Republic and difficult away games to Lesotho and South Africa.
Source: Getty Images
Maximum points are required, and more importantly beat South Africa away to limit their rise and close the gap on them, scoring enough goals to deflate their goal difference, which is five, four more than Nigeria.
If all these play out as written, both teams will be tied on 19 points, and the tiebreakers are firstly goal difference, then goals scored before head to head. The Super Eagles need to score as many goals as possible.
However, the possibility of South Africa getting points deduction reduced after South African journalist Joshua Hendricks reported that the Lesotho FA will not be pursuing the case, though FIFA could still look into it.
Countries standing in Nigeria's path
Legit.ng analysed the eight countries that could deny Nigeria World Cup ticket, including Group C leaders South Africa, who could pick the automatic slot in the group.
If Nigeria finish second, they could miss out on the playoff spots as they may not measure up in points against other teams including Gabon and Cameroon amongst others.
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Source: Legit.ng
