Wike vs Atiku: Political Analyst Predicts Tinubu’s 2nd Term Victory in 2027 As PDP Crisis Worsens
- Political analyst Jide Ojo has asserted that the opposition PDP would face a hard time in defeating President Tinubu and the ruling APC in 2027 due to its internal crisis
- Jide Ojo also highlighted the PDP's factional disputes, majorly between Atiku Abubakar and Nyesom Wike's camps, as a major factor hindering its role as an opposition in the polity
- In an exclusive interview with Legit.ng, Ojo critiqued the debate over zoning of the PDP presidential ticket for the 2027 poll
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Legit.ng journalist Esther Odili has over two years of experience covering political parties and movements.
Amid permutations for the 2027 elections and northern elites' early moves, political analyst Jide Ojo has maintained that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) cannot defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027, due to its internal crisis and lack of unity.
Source: Facebook
Speaking in an exclusive interview with Legit.ng on Monday, January 20, Jide Ojo emphasised that unless the PDP resolves its internal disputes and strengthens its position as an opposition in the polity, it risks handing victory to the APC in the next election.
He said:
"The answer is no, as at now. The way the major opposition parties are embroiled in crisis, does not go well for any political upset in 2027. And it is not just the major parties. The National Rescue Movement, the Labour party; even with the Court of Appeal's decision on Julius Abure's position, there was a statement issued by the caretaker committee, that case will still get to Supreme Court.
"So, until when the opposition political parties are able to reconcile themselves, if they are able to get a merger in place early enough this year, so that they can use next year to strengthen their position, otherwise, they will just handover the 2027 presidential victory to Tinubu.
"It's just one step at a time; the first step is reconciliation and strengthening its opposition, so that they can present a formidable force but right now, PDP is in crisis, whether they want to admit it or not. There is polarisation and factionalisation in that party. So they have to first deal with speck in their eyes, before they can see the log in someone else's eyes."
PDP crisis: Wike might not be expelled
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Meanwhile, the minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike's romance with the chieftains of the ruling APC has stirred a fresh concern, considering his PDP membership.
Wike, who lost the party's presidential ticket to Atiku Abubakar, recently vowed to support Tinubu's re-election bid, further fuelling the crisis rocking the PDP.
But, Jide Ojo, in this interview with Legit.ng, said Wike might not be expelled from the PDP because of the court order he secured and the backing of Umar Damagum, the party's national chairman.
The political analyst stated thus:
"He has gotten a court order. Don't forget he got a court order that he should not be expelled, suspended or removed. You cannot have a member that is bigger than the party.
"And that is what Umar Damagum has also done. Damagum has also gotten a court order that he should not be suspended or removed until the expiration of his tenure in December of 2026. who will wait for that? which means that, that will strengthen Wike's position because from what I learnt, Wike is using Damagum as his joker.
"Wike is obviously playing anti-party and if the party's constitution is something that should be followed, Wike should ordinarily have been suspended or sanctioned. of course, APC is finding every useful tool to destabilise the party and unless they are able to vacate that court order. But who will do that? Is it Damagum that have been alleged to be his ally?" This also tied in to where the zoning will be. If Damagum will be in power till December 2026, it then means that, you cannot have the presidential candidate of the party and the party's national chairman coming from the same zone. This was what led to the party's internal crisis. Where Wike said Iyorchia Ayu you are a northerner, you are from Benue state, then Atiku is also from Benue, that is against the party's constitution, where he now said, agreement is agreement; Ayu go and resign, you cannot have the party chairman and the party's presidential candidate from the same region, so that is the scenario they are playing into by not quickly having their convention and electing a substantive chairman. And with speculation that Damagum is in the camp of Wike, it then means that he will not do anything to vacate the court order, that will enable them to now discipline."
"Bode George said recently that even the Board of Trustees (BoT) of the PDP is divided, so a house divided against itself cannot stand."
2027: Why PDP should delay decision on zoning
Speaking further, Jide Ojo urged the PDP to first resolve its internal party crisis before considering the debate on zoning and who gets the PDP's presidential ticket in the next general election.
Legit.ng recalled that Bode George, a former deputy national chairman of the PDP, insisted that a southerner must occupy the office of the president and commander in chief from 2023 to 2031 “because that is the reality of our country, PDP constitution, and our polity.”
The PDP chieftain maintained that Atiku must wait till 2031 to run for president, noting that ex-President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner, spent eight years and a southerner must occupy the seat in 2027.
Reacting, Jide Ojo, told Legit.ng:
"Well, the PDP must get out of its current crisis. It is in a very bad shape. The PDP is not able to play its role as the main opposition party. It is just Atiku Abubakar talking, not for the PDP but as a former presidential candidate.
"If the PDP decides to zone its presidential ticket to the south, the south has three zones, South-South, South-East, and South-West. If it decides to zone it to the southwest, that means it intends to polarise the South-West votes and fair enough, PDP is in control of Osun and Oyo states and the voting population of the two states are very humongous because when you look at the voting population, Oyo state ranked maybe 3rd or 4th after Kano and Lagos. At this stage, it is too early to stick out one's neck.
"Right now, there are talks of merger, PDP wanting to merge with other political parties to form a mega party. The situation now is in a state of flop, you cannot really sincerely link a forecast that will be enduring.
"At this point, let PDP expedite action to reconcile themselves. About the zoning of its ticket, that one will come when INEC has release the notice of election and timetable.
"Also, the national crisis of who is the authentic national secretary and the debate over the substantive national chairman is already tearing the party apart. Recall that there is a two prominent faction, the Atiku Abubakar's faction and the Nyesom Wike's faction within the PDP, so they just have to first reconcile themselves before debate of zoning takes center stage ahead of 2027."
2027: Zoning debate premature, says Segun Sowunmi
Similarly, Legit.ng earlier reported that Segun Sowunmi, a PDP chieftain, described discussions about zoning the party’s presidential ticket for the 2027 elections as premature.
In an exclusive interview with Legit.ng, Sowunmi urged the PDP to focus on settling its internal crisis and maintained that issues like vote buying should take precedence over zoning debates.
Amid PDP's challenges, Sowunmi defended Nyesom Wike’s support for President Tinubu’s re-election and maintained that the party’s disciplinary committee should decide Wike's expulsion.
Proofreading by Nkem Ikeke, journalist and copy editor at Legit.ng.
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Source: Legit.ng
