APC, PDP, Labour Party: Who Will Emerge Next Edo Governor?
- The APC, PDP and the Labour Party have strong interests in winning the forthcoming governorship election in Edo state
- While the governorship candidates, Asue Ighodalo (PDP), Monday Okpebholo (APC) and Olumide Akpata (Labour Party), are having their first political challenge, President Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have something to gain
- Tinubu, Atiku and Obi need to win the state to solidify their chances in the 2027 presidential election
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The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has scheduled Saturday, September 21, for the Edo state governorship election. This is an off-cycle poll, which is always conducted in Nigeria.
According to INEC, a total of 17 political parties are participating in the upcoming election, with a diverse range of candidates vying for the position.
Notably, only one of the 17 contestants is a woman, while the remaining 16 candidates are men.
Source: Twitter
However, the race is said to be between three top governorship candidates: Monday Okpebholo of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asue Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata.
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Labour Party and Akpata
The 2023 presidential election saw a significant surge in support for Peter Obi in Edo state, where he secured an impressive 56.97% of the votes. Notably, Obi's performance surpassed the 25% threshold, outpacing his more seasoned competitors and their established political machinery.
President Bola Tinubu, the eventual election winner, garnered 24.86% of the votes in Edo, while Atiku Abubakar's party, which had dominated Edo and national politics since 1999, secured only 15.41%.
As the state prepares for Saturday's governorship election, the stakes are high for the 2023 presidential candidates and their parties. Winning the governorship is crucial, as governors wield significant influence in Nigerian politics. A party's number of states controlled is often seen as a measure of its electoral strength and a factor in future successes.
For Obi and the Labour Party (LP), victory in Edo would validate their 2023 performance, demonstrating it was no anomaly. It would provide LP with control over a second state (currently, they hold Abia) and enhance Obi's reputation and relevance, regardless of his future political plans.
Asue Ighodalo and the PDP
For Atiku Abubakar, Ighodalo and the PDP, retaining Edo state's governorship is a crucial opportunity to salvage their reputation after being unexpectedly surpassed in the 2023 elections in the South-South and South-East regions, which were previously their strongholds.
The party's performance in Edo state was particularly dismal, failing to secure a senatorial seat and managing only one out of nine House of Representatives seats.
If PDP retains the governorship, it will maintain its current tally of 13 governors. However, losing Edo state will further diminish the party's influence, which has been declining since its peak when it controlled 28 states and boasted an uninterrupted 60-year rule. This outcome would underscore the party's waning dominance and raise concerns about its future prospects.
Why does APC need Edo?
A win in Edo state would significantly benefit the APC, allowing the party to reclaim a state it governed for 12 years (2008-2020). The party lost Edo in 2020 when outgoing Governor Godwin Obaseki, the APC's 2016 candidate, was denied re-election and defected to the PDP, which then won the state.
Victory in Edo would increase APC's governorship count to 21, nearing its best performance since the party's inception in 2013, when it won 22 states in the 2015 governorship elections.
For President Bola Tinubu, winning Edo holds personal significance. In 2007/2008, he successfully expanded his political influence beyond the South West by launching his Action Congress (AC) in Edo, a strategic move that contributed to his eventual presidency.
The ACN, a predecessor to the APC, won 76% of the votes in the 2012 Edo governorship election and 55% in 2016. However, the relationship between Obaseki and his predecessor, Adams Oshiomhole, deteriorated, leading to the current political landscape.
Proofreading by James, Ojo Adakole, journalist and copy editor at Legit.ng.
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