2023 Presidency: List of States Atiku, Tinubu, Obi, Kwankwaso Will Get 25% as ThisDay Predicts Outcome
Thisday Election Centre has predicted that there may be a runoff in the forthcoming 2023 presidential election.
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The initiative which is the brainchild of the Thisday newspaper predicted that the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, is sure of getting 25% of votes in 23 states.
Source: Twitter
The election centre also projected that the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate has 20 states he is sure of 25%.
It predicted that the candidates of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, will follow as third and fourth in that order.
According to Thisday, Obi and Kwankwaso fall far short in many states to satisfy the constitutional requirement of 25 per cent of votes cast in 24 states.
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"With the changing realities in next year’s electoral permutations, there is an increasing likelihood that the first ballot at the February 25 presidential election may not produce a clear winner.
"By implication, there may be a run-off in the presidential bout before a clear winner is returned by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)," Thisday stated.
To further understand Thisday's projection, read how a winner emerges in Nigeria's presidential election.
The media organisation said some factors that informed its projections include:
- Presence of the candidates in each of the states
- Candidates' structures and support base
- Capacity to mobilise
- The contents of the candidates' respective manifestos
- Ethnic sentiments
- Candidates' popularity and name recognition,
- Candidates' financial war chest.
North-central
| S/N | States | Tinubu | Atiku | Obi | Kwankwaso | Others/Undecided |
| 1. | Plateau | 20% | 35% | 35% | 5% | 5% |
| 2. | Benue | 20% | 25% | 30% | 10% | 15% |
| 3. | Nasarawa | 30% | 25% | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| 4. | Niger | 35% | 35% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| 5. | Kogi | 35% | 35% | 15% | 5% | 10% |
| 6. | Kwara | 35% | 40% | 10% | 10% | 5% |
Northeast
| S/N | States | Tinubu | Atiku | Obi | Kwankwaso | Others/Undecided |
| 1. | Borno | 40% | 35% | - | 20% | 5% |
| 2. | Yobe | 40% | 30% | - | 15% | 15% |
| 3. | Adamawa | 20% | 60% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
| 4. | Taraba | 10% | 40% | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| 5. | Gombe | 20% | 40% | 15% | 5% | 20% |
| 6. | Bauchi | 20% | 40% | 5% | 15% | 20% |
Northwest
| S/N | States | Tinubu | Atiku | Obi | Kwankwaso | Others/Undecided |
| 1. | Kano | 30% | 20% | 5% | 40% | 5% |
| 2. | Kaduna | 30% | 25% | 20% | 20% | 5% |
| 3. | Katsina | 30% | 35% | - | 30% | 5% |
| 4. | Jigawa | 25% | 35% | - | 25% | 15% |
| 5. | Sokoto | 35% | 40% | - | 15% | 10% |
| 6. | Kebbi | 35% | 35% | - | 20% | 10% |
| 7. | Zamfara | 35% | 35% | - | 20% | 10% |
Southeast
| S/N | States | Tinubu | Atiku | Obi | Kwankwaso | Others/Undecided |
| 1. | Enugu | 10% | 15% | 60% | - | 15% |
| 2. | Ebonyi | 15% | 15% | 60% | - | 10% |
| 3. | Imo | 15% | 20% | 60% | - | 5% |
| 4. | Abia | 10% | 15% | 60% | - | 15% |
| 5. | Anambra | 5% | 10% | 70% | - | 15% |
South-south
| S/N | States | Tinubu | Atiku | Obi | Kwankwaso | Others/Undecided |
| 1. | Delta | 15% | 40% | 35% | - | 10% |
| 2. | Edo | 15% | 35% | 35% | - | 15% |
| 3. | Akwa Ibom | 15% | 40% | 30% | - | 15% |
| 4. | Bayelsa | 20% | 40% | 30% | - | 10% |
| 5. | Cross River | 25% | 20% | 35% | - | 20% |
| 6. | Rivers | 10% | 15% | 35% | - | 40% |
Southwest
| S/N | States | Tinubu | Atiku | Obi | Kwankwaso | Others/Undecided |
| 1. | Lagos | 45% | 20% | 25% | 5% | 5% |
| 2. | Ogun | 45% | 20% | 5% | 15% | 15% |
| 3. | Ondo | 45% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| 4. | Ekiti | 45% | 20% | 15% | - | 20% |
| 5. | Oyo | 40% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| 6. | Osun | 35% | 35% | 5% | 5% | 20% |
Peter Obi, Tinubu or Atiku? Winner emerges as Anap Foundation conducts second poll ahead of 2023 elections
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that Peter Obi, Labour Party presidential candidate, emerged winner in a new poll conducted by NOI Polls Limited and commissioned by Anap Foundation in December ahead of the 2023 general election.
The poll, which is the second conducted in four months, showed that Obi leads Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).
The president of Anap Foundation, Atedo Peterside, disclosed this when he appeared as a guest on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme on Wednesday, December 21.
Source: Legit.ng
