2023 presidential election: Why Peter Obi's aspiration may fail

• The chances of the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, ruling Nigeria in 2023 may not be realised due to IPOB activities in the southeast
• IPOB activities in the region that is supposed to be the voting bloc of the Anambra-born politician have been tipped, among other reasons, why Obi may not win next year's poll
• Although Peter Obi is popular among the youth, he may gather little vote from the southeast, which is his constituency, while his votes would be divided in other regions as religion and tribe could play a major role in next year's elections

As the 2023 election draws closer, there are permutations that the election would be decided by several factors, and those factors, according to those in politics, are in the hands of the electorates.

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Candidate’s acceptability

But the key factor would be the acceptability of the candidate that will take the mantle after Buhari exits Aso Rock.

Four major contenders are currently in the race for the presidential villa. Though there are other candidates, one of the four including Atiku Abubakar, Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi and Musa Kwankwaso will likely emerge as the nation’s president.

Peter Obi most acceptable

In terms of general acceptability, the Labour Party’s candidate, Peter Obi is cruising. The LP candidate is undoubtedly popular among Nigerian youths.

A United States-based politician, Charles Emejuru, said that Obi stands out among all the contestants justling for the 2023 election. According to him, the Anambra-born politician is genuinely bent on addressing the nation’s numerous challenges.

He had pointed at youthfulness and energy as some of the advantages Obi has over other contestants.

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According to him:

“My ideal candidate is someone who is ethical, someone who has common sense, and someone who truly, genuinely cares about the masses. A candidate who doesn’t judge based on what part of the country you are from and whose interest is to unite and not divide,” he said.

“Someone who wants to bring an end to police brutality, an end to bad governance, and an end to poverty. I believe the candidate who, although not perfect, comes close to these ideals is Peter Obi.”

Others have shared a similar experience. According to Victor Adam Ogene, representing Ogbaru Federal Constituency of Anambra State in the House of Representatives, Obi’s movement appears like a mass non-violent revolution against the political elites by impoverished Nigerians.

He said:

“Peter Obi does not just represent the presidential candidacy of the Labour Party, he has, rather, become the symbol of frustrations of the Nigerian youths, of the Nigerian people against a system that has refused to reform itself.

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“Everybody who feels oppressed, who is not part of the current rent system which our political leaders are adept at; everybody who is frustrated with the system is joining the movement at grave personal discomfort to ensure that the people take back their country. His charge is for the Youths to take back their country.”

The above sums up the general opinion of most Nigerians who believe that a “Messiah” to rescue the nation has come, but the oppositions believe Peter Obi is running under a platform with no structure.

According to them, a political party must have the requisite structure to pull a national election.

According to the Peoples Democratic Head of New Media, Anthony Ehilebo had admitted that Obi was a good candidate but running under a structureless political party. He said if he has he would have thought through it very well and gone for a more structured platform.

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Ehilebo said:

“I like Peter Obi, and I was one of those who said Obi was presidential material several years ago, but this movement started quite late. It should have started since or under a party that has a structure.”

Obi’s setback beyond structure

Obi’s problem will not stop at just the structure, as back home in Anambra and in the entire southeast, insecurity is a time bomb waiting for the 2023 election.

Nigeria's election is mostly based on tribal and regional sentiments. Legit.ng observes that among the 6 geopolitical zones, the South East, the North West, and the North East are the most hit in the area of insecurity.

Bola Tinubu may take South West votes

Because of the political structure he has built across the southwest, the All Progressives Congress candidate Bola Tinubu may take most of the southwest. Though Peter Obi may fight so hard in the region due to the presence of southeasterners in Lagos and other states, it’s going to be difficult to challenge Tinubu in that region.

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A political analyst, Simon Egbo said:

“Tinubu is working assiduously in the southwest. His focus is to capture the region and then focus his energy on the north, and the south eat. In the southeast, he has loyalists he had made, and they can do anything for him.

“Let me tell you, Tinubu may not even step his foot in the southeast until after the election, but he has foot soldiers already working for him. And with the Shettima factor, the north would be shared. This is where Obi will have a problem. Atiku too will share in the southeast votes because of his relationship with top politicians from the region.”

Though it is believed that even though Obi will get the majority of the Southeast votes, voters’ turnout may be very poor due to the current insecurity in the region. And if turnout is low, the majority of votes will go to the other candidates.

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Southeast under siege

Recall that the southeast has recently been riddled with bullets from the protesting Indigenous People of Biafra and the Nigerian military in what appears like a battle to control the sub-region. IPOB has constantly declared sit-at-home in solidarity with its leader, Nnamdi Kanu. And going against the sit-at-home order usually leads to violence.

Some top politicians have been killed in the southeast by a group generally referred to as unknown gunmen. One of such was Ahmed Gulak, who was killed in Imo State.

Only a few days ago, senator Ifeanyi Ubah’s convoy was attacked in Anambra State. No fewer than 10 persons lost their lives in the attack, including the politician’s top aides and some security operatives.

These killings targeted at politicians and the elites in the southeast may count against Obi. And to put Obi ahead of the other candidates in terms of voting power, the southeast must be united and form the needed alliance with other regions.

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North Central is decider

Legit.ng reports that the north is a deciding factor if things remain the way they are till the commencement of the polls. It means that the political party and candidate who is able to build the requisite alliance across Niger will be able to make a big statement in the election.

An APC Chieftain who does not want his name in print expressed his fear over 2023 election, stating that:

“If we must retain power in 2023, we must ensure we capture the north central. If we allow Peter Obi or Atiku Abubakar to penetrate that region, I’m afraid we may lose.”

It’s, therefore, true that Peter Obi needs to go beyond the thinking of many Nigerians, including the opposition to be able to clinch power come 2023.

Source: Legit.ng