Full List of States Tinubu Must Win to Emerge Nigeria's President in 2023 and His Possible Chances
With about 177 days to the 2023 presidential election, a report by Thisday newspaper has analysed the chances of the top three candidates: Bola Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
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The report noted that the current standing of the major presidential candidates and their parties, based on public opinion assessment, is still too close to call, even though campaigns are yet to officially begin.
Source: Facebook
Nevertheless, the report listed states where Tinubu and others must secure 60% and 40% wins to emerge president in 2023.
Tinubu's pathway to Aso Rock: States he must win
| States Tinubu Must Win Over 60% | Comment (prediction) | |
| 1 | Lagos | Likely |
| 2 | Ogun | Likely |
| 3 | Ondo | Likely |
| 4 | Oyo | Possible |
| 5 | Osun | Possible |
| 6 | Ekiti | Likely |
| 7 | Kano | Possible |
| 8 | Kaduna | Possible |
| 9 | Katsina | Possible |
| 10 | Zamfara | Likely |
| 11 | Borno | Likely |
| 12 | Yobe | Likely |
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Tinubu's pathway to Aso Rock: States he must win over 40%
| States Tinubu Must Win Over 40% | Comment (prediction) | |
| 1 | Sokoto | Likely |
| 2 | Kebbi | Likely |
| 3 | Jigawa | Possible |
| 4 | Benue | Possible |
| 5 | Kogi | Likely |
| 6 | Niger | Likely |
| 7 | Kwara | Possible |
| 8 | Plateau | Possible |
| 9 | FCT | Possible |
Note: Though it was not explicitly stated, a closer look at the report indicates that states where Tinubu's chances are rated "likely" are those where he is most likely to win because they are under the APC's control.
Most of the states where his chances are rated "possible" are those under the control of the opposition PDP.
The report also listed the states where Atiku must secure 60% and 40% wins to emerge as Nigeria's number one citizen in 2023.
Political analyst predicts winner of 2023 presidential election
In a related development, popular political commentator, Deji Adeyanju, has predicted APC flag bearer, Tinubu, to emerge winner of the 2023 presidential election.
Adeyanju in a Twitter post sighted by Legit.ng on Friday, August 12, said the current division in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will hand Tinubu the victory.
According to the convener of Concerned Nigeria, the PDP has been divided into four and this will affect the party's chances.
Source: Legit.ng
