3 Reasons Why Tinubu May Not Get APC's Presidential Ticket
- Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has over the years built a formidable political structure which many pundits believe would give him an edge in the race to pick the APC presidential ticket
- There are, however, some critical factors that may work against the former governor of Lagos state at the presidential primary
- Among the factors which may cost Tinubu the ticket is the alleged lack of support from his political ally, President Buhari
The national leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is leaving no stones unturned in his bid to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023.
In February, Tinubu officially kickstarted the process, after years of meticulous planning and strategising.
Source: Twitter
The former Lagos governor went to the seat of power, Aso Rock, to announce his presidential interest which he described as a life-long ambition.
Ahead of the APC’s presidential primary, 22 other aspirants are up against Tinubu as they all battle to clinch the presidential ticket of the ruling party.
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Having strategised for years and built structures and alliances across Nigeria with painstaking discipline, sacrifice, maturity, tenacity, and laser focus, it should not be difficult for Tinubu to defeat other contenders in the race.
However, there are new dynamics and developments which may rob Tinubu of the opportunity of getting the ticket, despite the years of meticulous planning.
Lack of Buhari’s support
In Nigerian politics, the president is not just the leader of the country, he is also the leader of the ruling party.
Thus, President Muhammadu Buhari has a strong role to play in whoever will emerge as the APC’s presidential candidate and his potential successor in 2023.
Source: Facebook
Sadly, the president is reportedly not enthusiastic about having Tinubu as his successor, even though the latter played a crucial role in his victory against the then incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, in 2015, after three failed attempts.
While supporters of the former Lagos governor believe he could still go ahead to win the APC ticket without Buhari’s support, the president on Tuesday, May 31, gave them a shocker when he announced he would pick a preferred successor who will (most likely) be adopted as the party’s consensus candidate.
With Buhari’s body language, Tinubu doesn’t seem to have the chance of being picked as his preferred successor.
According to Daily Trust, a serving minister in Buhari’s cabinet said that the president is not convinced that Tinubu should be his successor by 2023.
The unnamed cabinet member added that the president had not hidden his position that he was not interested in Tinubu’s candidature.
“The president is not interested in Tinubu's candidature because he is not convinced that Asiwaju is the right person to succeed him,” the minister said.
"We believe that Tinubu will not protect Buhari's interest after his tenure, hence the need to look elsewhere. We are working hard to convince the president to support a candidate that would protect his interest after his tenure," the source was quoted as saying.
Also, Ade Bash, a political commentator, told Legit.ng that Tinubu has the best chance to win if the APC adopts the direct or indirect mode of primary elections.
“If APC is to go for the direct, Tinubu has the structure to win it. If APC is to go for the indirect, Tinubu has the structure to win it,” he said.
However, the political analyst noted that there is no 100% guarantee of victory for Tinubu if the APC adopts the consensus method in choosing its presidential candidate.
According to him, the consensus mode, if adopted, will be determined by President Buhari and a few people around him, and they might favour Tinubu or anyone else.
Cracks in Tinubu’s political base
Until recently, Tinubu’s political structure had been strong and formidable. However, he has lost a good number of his important political allies, including the minister of interior, Rauf Aregbesola.
Source: Facebook
Also, a considerable number of his political allies, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and Ekiti governor Kayode, for instance, who could have been rooting for his presidency have also “daringly” declared interest in the presidency and will be contesting against him at the primary, if it holds.
“A lot of Mr. Tinubu's foot soldiers have either found new masters or are working to become their own masters in the unravelling political melodrama,” Josiah Oluwole wrote in an analytical piece published by Premium Times.
Fear of being powerful
When Tinubu in March met with the APC caucus in the House of Rep to solicit their support, here is what the Ado Doguwa, majority leader of the house, told him:
“You are at home because you are here with your sons and daughters who are proudly your own, who have benefited individually and collectively in your socio-political investment in the politics of this nation.”
The above statement underscores Tinubu’s tremendous political capital. Having helped so many to achieve their political aspirations, the APC leader is now seen as a political kingmaker whose influence cuts across Nigeria.
Source: Twitter
His influence, many analysts, say will boost his chances of clinching the APC presidential ticket. Ironically, it’s also the influence that may cost him the ticket as there are fears that he is already powerful and will become too powerful and uncontrollable, with presidential power.
In an interview published by New Telegraph in July 2021, a former Governor of Jigawa state and a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Sule Lamido, said Tinubu’s political aspiration may be scuttled by President Buhari and some stakeholders from the north.
“None of them in APC has the appeal, stature, aura, personality, or the charm of Buhari. They are just a company around him. The only person, who can stand on his own against Buhari is Tinubu.
“Buhari would not allow him. Tinubu is rich, he is a politician, he understands Nigeria and he has a large constituency that will vote for him,” the former Jigawa state governor said.
Lamido further alleged that the stakeholders in the northern APC will not allow Tinubu to succeed Buhari in order not to bury the president’s “personality.”
He added:
“That is why Tinubu is having some problems. If you put Tinubu there, he will bury Buhari’s personality and presidency.
“He will bury Buhari’s political history because Tinubu is focused; he is a leader; he breeds and nurtures people. He knows the economy. I mean, he has so much going for him that they envy him.
“Therefore, they will never allow him to see the light of the day with his aspiration."
Similarly, Neil Munshi, a former West Africa correspondent for Financial Times opined that Tinubu’s “huge influence…may yet hold him back.”
“He’s too powerful . . . that’s not how Nigerian politics works,” Munshi quoted Amaka Anku, Africa director for Eurasia Group as saying.
“He’s powerful just sitting there in Lagos with no position. How can you let a man like that be president? You can’t, because you need someone who needs stuff from you, not someone who can just control everything on their own.”
2023: It’s my turn to be president, says Tinubu
Meanwhile, Tinubu on Thursday, June 2, said he deserves to succeed President Buhari based on his antecedents.
One of the leading presidential aspirants in the ruling APC stated this during his visit to Abeokuta to seek the support of delegates in Ogun state ahead of the party's presidential primary election.
The former Lagos state governor who spoke in the Yoruba language recalled that he had played significant roles in the build-up to the emergence of the APC as the national ruling party.
Source: Legit.ng
