Possible Scenarios in Ihiala Ahead of Anambra Supplementary Election
The winner of the Anambra state governorship election may be decided by the outcome of the poll in Ihiala local government area which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had rescheduled due to alleged irregularities.
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Ihiala has been reputed as the local government with the highest concentration of billionaires in Anambra state, after Nnewi, and it also boasts the second largest voting strength in the state, after Idemili North local government Area.
Source: UGC
Before INEC declared the exercise inconclusive, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) candidate, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, was already in the lead with 103,942 votes.
With a margin of over 39,000 votes, Soludo has taken a significant lead over his closet opponents despite losing Nnewi North and Ogbaru. Attention has now been shifted to the council area which has one of the highest (148,407) registered voters in the state for the 2021 election.
In light of this, Legit.ng takes a look at possible scenarios that could play out pending the supplementary election.
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1. Runoff election
Soludo got the highest votes of 103,946 followed by Val Ozigbo of PDP with 51,322 votes and Andy Uba of APC’s 42,942 votes in 20 out of 21 council areas.
The former CBN governor’s margin of lead is, however, lower than the 148,407 registered voters in Ihiala. So there is a chance of Ozigbo or Uba polling higher votes than Soludo thereby forcing a run-off poll.
Section 179 (3) of INEC's constitution provides that a run-off election shall take place if no candidate meets the requirements of Sub-section 2 of that Section.
This will be between the candidate with the highest number of votes and one among the remaining candidates who secured a majority of votes in the highest number of local government areas in the state.
2. Vote buying
Incidences of alleged vote-buying by political parties across the state will likely impact the credibility of the election result negatively.
There have been reports of numerous not so discreet cases in polling units across the 21 local government areas of the southeast state before and during the election on Saturday, November 6.
3. Voter Apathy
So far voters have largely stayed away from polling units in the ongoing Anambra governorship election. Generally, voter apathy has been high in Anambra state, particularly in Ihiala local government area.
In spite of this, many voters from Ihiala, who reside in other towns may travel to the area in preparation for the election.
4. Rejection of votes
The All Progressives Congress (APC) has already rejected the results so far declared by the electoral umpire.
The party said it would never accept the election’s outcome and called for the cancellation of the exercise.
Governor Willie Obiano and APGA governorship candidate have already been accused by APC of rigging the exercise. The opposition has vowed to contest the results if INEC declares Soludo winner of the election.
5. Late arrival of officials, materials at polling units
Non-arrival of election materials at Ihiala was part of the reasons why the election could not be conducted in the LGA on Saturday, November 6.
Since the beginning of the exercise, there has been a trend of shortage or late arrival of election officials across many polling units in the various local government areas. As a result, the commencement of voting has been slowed and deployment of materials delayed.
Can Soludo still lose the governorship poll?
Legit.ng previously reported that, to many election observers, APGA's candidate is the next governor of Anambra state.
This conclusion will be premised on the fact that he has the highest votes in the election, having secured victory in 18 of the 20 LGAs where election held.
He secured 103,946 votes, followed by Ozigbo of the PDP who got 51,322 votes, while Andy Uba, candidate of the APC had 42,942.
Source: Legit.ng
