Rice Prices to Change as Nigeria Faces N1.43 Trillion Shortage Over Low Production
- Nigeria may be hit with acute rice shortage valued at N1.43 trillion due to low production
- The development comes as parboiled rice price rose to N679.500 per tonne in Thailand, leading to N33,000 per 50kg bag
- However, a global rice organisation, AFEX, has predicted that rice prices will fall due to increased output as India returns to the export market
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Legit.ng’s Pascal Oparada has reported on tech, energy, stocks, investment and the economy for over a decade.
There is fear that Nigeria may experience 2.18 million tonnes of rice shortage valued at N1.43 trillion due to low production.
As of February 20, 2025, parboiled sold for N679.500 per tonne in Thailand, leading to about N33,000 per 50kg bag.
Source: Getty Images
Rice price: Mixed projections as production drops
Milled rice production in Nigeria is reportedly projected to drop from 5.60 million to 5.22 in the 2024.2025 season. Paddy rice is projected to decline to 8.30 million tonnes from 8.90 million in the season.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), rice consumption will hit 7.4 million metric tonnes in 2025. The increase is due to consumers’ preference for rice as the most affordable food relative to other staples.
The data shows that due to low production, by the third quarter of this year, paddy rice prices will increase from N1.10 million to N1.30 million per metric tonne.
Rice farmers lament low production
Legit.ng reports that AFEX revealed that global rice production will rise by eight per cent, while price will decline to 11% in 2025.
The New Telegraph reported that the Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RIFAN) has expressed concern over rising demand.
Raphael Hanusa, RIFAN state chairman in Lagos, said that local production could not meet demand, stressing that rice production in Lagos has been consistent for some time but not enough to meet rising demand.
According to Hanusa, the production capacity of RIFEN members has been low as they could only produce 3,800 tonnes.
He commended the Lagos State government for its help through interventions.
He revealed that many farmers have yet to commence farming this year, asking them to remain consistent in planting to raise production output and meet consumers’ needs.
Rice farmers ask for interventions
He asked the government to channel their initiatives via the association to ensure interventions reach the beneficiaries.
The Deputy Chairman of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, Shakin Agbayewa, attributed the low output to climate change.
He said rice farmers do not produce enough due to several factors, which include climate change, and hot weather conditions.
According to Agbeyewa, farmers are delaying planting until the wet season despite the risks associated with such wait as heavy rain leads to flooding.
Rice prices projected to decline in 2025
He disclosed that access to irrigation systems was a key challenge for local farmers, asking the government to intervene in the area to increase output.
AFEX noted in its 2025 outlook that the increase in global production was based on favourable weather conditions, including robust rainfall, which may increase yield in India and across Asia.
AFEX predicted a global drop in rice prices in 2025, saying that India’s return to the export market would push the commodity’s price in the first quarter of 2025.
Source: Getty Images
Rice price rises after Christmas
A previous report by Legit.ng revealed that rice prices rose again after crashing during the Christmas and New Year holidays.
Feelers show that the price of the commodity, which sold for between N65,000 and N67,000 per 50kg bag, rose again and caused panic in many households after a brief respite
Findings show that the price of a 50kg bag of imported Indian short grain, which crashed from N90,000 in December to N65,000 and N67,000, had risen to about N75,000 with traders expecting further increases.
Imported Thai grain, which sold for as much as N100,000 during the December period dropped to N88,000 and N89,000 in January. However, the price has skyrocketed to N92,000 and N105,000, depending on the brand.
Traders give prices of popular rice brands in Nigeria
Legit.ng earlier reported market surveys, the price of a 50kg bag of rice now ranges from N80,000 to N120,000, depending on the brand and location.
A 50kg bag of Mama Gold rice, according to Stephen, a trader at Ojo Market, Lagos, now sells for N88,000, up from its previous price of N75,000.
Olam Group's Mama’s Choice is marketed as a premium rice option processed in Nigeria. Currently, a 50kg bag costs N102,000.
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Source: Legit.ng
