Nigeria’s Budget in Trouble as Oil Production Slumps amid Increase in Reserves
- Nigeria’s crude oil production has suffered another setback as production slumped to 1.4 million barrels from 1.465
- Nigeria’s crude production had averaged 1.5 million barrels daily in Nigeria, the exact quota assigned by OPEC to the country
- However, crude oil output began to slide in February through March, dashing the hope of realising 3 mbpd in 2025
Legit.ng’s Pascal Oparada has reported on tech, energy, stocks, investment and the economy for over a decade.
Following the global crude oil price crash, Nigeria’s average daily crude production declined again in March, threatening the local currency and the national budget.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that the daily crude production figure averaged 1.40 million barrels daily, from 1.465 in February.
Source: Getty Images
Nigeria’s crude production crashed in February
In January, Nigeria’s crude production rose slightly above 1.5 million barrels daily, a quota allocated to the nation by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The January output increased hopes that the country might realise its ambitious 2 million barrels daily target in 2025.
However, in February, oil production slumped, and this was repeated in March, leading to doubts about the plan to achieve the 2 million barrels per day goal.
Also, oil production dipped from 1.78 mbpd in January to 1.67 mbpd in February and 1.603 mbpd in March.
NUPRC shows Nigeria’s crude output
NUPRC stated that the lowest and peak production in March were 1.49 million barrels and 1.76 million barrels, respectively.
The daily average production in March was 1,603,776 barrels per day, comprising oil and condensate.
Nigeria could not meet the average crude oil output quota assigned by OPEC throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024.
However, the Nigerian government began 2025 positively, with production rising from 1.4 mbpd in December 2024 to 1.5 mbpd in January 2025.
Experts have said that crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism were among the top factors preventing the country from meeting its OPEC quota over the years.
Nigeria’s crude oil production target is threatened
Punch reports that the Minister of Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, disclosed that Nigeria could reach 3 million barrels of crude oil production in 2025.
The Minister insisted that the country would ramp up production by tapping into President Donald Trump’s oil drilling plan.
Lokpobiri said the 3mbpd would include condensates, saying that Nigeria would increase production without infringing on OPEC’s guidelines.
However, that plan may have evaporated following the current drop in daily oil production.
Nigeria’s crude cargoes face sluggish acceptance
Oil prices have crashed by over $10 below $75 per barrel, the benchmark price for Nigeria’s 2025 budget.
According to reports, Brent crude price hit $64.76 per barrel on Sunday, April 13, 2025, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sold for $61.50.
Argus Media reported that crude oil grades from Nigeria faced slow acceptance in the April trade cycle due to the availability of lower-priced alternatives.
Source: Getty Images
The report revealed that the trade cycle has shifted to May, with 15 April-loading Nigerian cargos still searching for buyers.
Nigeria's oil and gas reserves hit new high
Legit.ng earlier reported that the Nigerian Upstream and Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced that Nigeria's official petroleum reserves had increased to 37.28 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate, along with 210.54 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
The NUPRC disclosed this recently in a release, declaring the country’s reserve position in crude oil and natural gas.
According to the release signed by NUPRC chief executive officer, Gbenga Komolafe, Nigeria’s proven (2P) crude oil and condensate reserves stand at 31.44 billion barrels and 5.84 billion barrels respectively.
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Proofreading by Kola Muhammed, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
Pascal Oparada (Business editor) For over a decade, Pascal Oparada has reported on tech, energy, stocks, investment, and the economy. He has worked in many media organizations such as Daily Independent, TheNiche newspaper, and the Nigerian Xpress. He is a 2018 PwC Media Excellence Award winner. Email:pascal.oparada@corp.legit.ng
Kola Muhammed (Copyeditor) Kola Muhammed is an experienced editor and content strategist who has overseen content and public relations strategies for some of the biggest (media) brands in Sub-Saharan Africa. He has over 10 years of experience in writing and (copy)editing.
