“No more 850/L”: Experts Predict New Petrol Price as Dangote Announces New Deal With Marketers
- Experts and marketers have disclosed that petrol prices will rise again as the naira-for-crude deal between refineries and NNPC fails
- They asked Nigerians to prepare as the deal’s collapse will shoot up petroleum product prices again
- Marketers also revealed that the development will pressure the naira to lose its stability as demand for the dollar increases
Legit.ng’s Pascal Oparada has reported on tech, energy, stocks, investment and the economy for over a decade.
Following the suspension of the naira-for-crude arrangement between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), the Dangote Refinery and domestic refiners, Nigerians have been asked to brace up for higher PMS prices.
The development comes as the parties could not renew the naira-for-crude deal entered into in October last year.
Source: UGC
The naira-for-crude reduced petrol prices
The deal ensured that domestic refineries, including the mega Dangote Refinery, get crude oil in the local currency to ensure availability, better pricing and reduced prices.
With the deal collapsing, marketers and energy policy analysts have asked Nigerians to brace up to pay more for petroleum products.
Dangote Refinery announced a temporary halt to the sales of petroleum products, including PMS in naira as the talks between the NNPC and the facility stalled.
Following the announcement by Dangote, the cost of loading petrol at private deports reportedly rose to N900 per litre from N850 on Wednesday, March 19, 2025.
Experts ask Nigerians to brace up for higher prices
Experts have said this is expected as the Dangote Refinery remains the major supplier of PMS to most filling stations nationwide.
Adeola Yusuf, an energy policy analyst and Team Lead at Platforms Africa told Legit.ng in a chat that with President Bola Tinubu's May 29, 2023 announcement of total deregulation of the downstream oil sector, the petrol pricing has and will continue to have regular adjustments.
He said that added to the variables responsible for this is the Dangote Refinery, which has become one of the major players in the post-deregulation market.
According to him, with the private refinery's suspension of petrol sale in naira, an upward review of the price is immediately imminent at filling stations of marketers that get supply from the refinery. He mentioned that the refinery will adjust its price, and this will tickle down to filling stations that get supply from it.
“It may, however, be difficult to generalise the review at other stations that get supply elsewhere before this.
“We must note that NNPC Limited remains the most responsible for the supply and distribution of the product.
“Nonetheless, the Dangote Refinery has, after the start of production, announced reductions in the price at MRS, a station that receives supply from it on two occasions due to benefits accruable from the naira for crude supply.
“The meat of the Dangote Refinery's latest announcement is for Nigerians who will be getting supply from Dangote through MRS and other marketers to be aware and brace up for an imminent review at those stations,” Yusuf said.
He said this will affect the competition or what some Nigerians described as a beneficial price war that has ensued between Dangote Refinery and NNPC Limited.
“The bigger picture is that it is likely going to lead to a monopoly,” he stated.
He asked the parties to fast-track the negotiation to keep lubricating the wheel of a free market and competition, which are the major gains of the deregulation.
Is NNPC trying to sabotage Dangote?
Also, speaking exclusively to Legit.ng, Ishaya Ibrahim, journalist and financial analyst said the deal’s suspension reeks of sabotage.
According to him, it makes no sense that NNPC will not prioritise domestic refineries with its crude sales, saying it is even the right of local refineries, including Dangote to receive the 400,000 bpd crude oil supply allocated to Nigerian refineries in the PIA.
“So, the action of the NNPC reinforces the allegation that some elements in the NNPC are behind the blending plants in Malta and will not relent in making Nigeria dependent on imported petrol.
“It swells their pockets at the expense of Nigerians who will have to pay more for petrol because this latest disruption in the Naira for crude deal will escalate prices.
"This is especially because Dangote will now have to denominate his prices on dollars, which does not guarantee price stability since the naira is the weaker currency in the exchange,” Ibrahim said.
Marketers predict new prices
Meanwhile, the national vice president of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Hammed Fashola, said the development could pressure the naira to lose its stability, Punch reports.
Fashola revealed that petrol prices will become reliant on the exchange rate, crude oil price and other factors determining the landing cost.
He said Dangote’s suspension of naira sales may not affect prices immediately as the landing cost of imported petrol has crashed to N774.82, warning that the local currency will suffer due to the deal’s collapse.
Fashola said the ex-depot prices have risen from N825 to N836 per litre, asking the Nigerian government to intervene.
Source: UGC
The national president of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry said the deal’s suspension will raise petroleum product prices again.
He said marketers at the meeting told the parties not to allow the deal to collapse because of its negative effects on fuel prices.
Dangote refinery crashes petrol prices again
Legit.ng earlier reported that on Thursday, March 13, 2025, the Dangote Refinery escalated the petrol price war by quietly lowering the PMS price at its loading gantry.
The giant refinery crashed petrol prices from N825 per litre to N815.
The development came as the plant introduced a new pricing structure on Thursday, March 13, 2025.
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Proofreading by Nkem Ikeke, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
Pascal Oparada (Business editor) For over a decade, Pascal Oparada has reported on tech, energy, stocks, investment, and the economy. He has worked in many media organizations such as Daily Independent, TheNiche newspaper, and the Nigerian Xpress. He is a 2018 PwC Media Excellence Award winner. Email:pascal.oparada@corp.legit.ng
Nkem Ikeke (Copy editor) Nkem Ikeke is currently a copy editor who also writes for the politics and current affairs desk on weekends. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in Mass Communication degree from the University of Nigeria, Nsukka (2010), and has over 10 years of work experience in the media industry (Reporter, News Agency of Nigeria). Email: n.ikeke@corp.legit.ng
