“N650 Per Litre”: Stakeholders Predict Cheaper Fuel As Global Oil Prices Continue To Tumble

• After weeks of uncertainty around the naira-for-crude deal, the government finally decided to continue with the policy
• In the wake of that decision, Dangote Refinery has shaved off N45 from its fuel prices in one week
• But analysts predict that the pump price of fuel in Nigeria will go even lower, up to N650 per litre

Legit.ng journalist Ruth Okwumbu-Imafidon has over a decade of experience in business reporting across digital and mainstream media.

In the past week, several price drops have occurred since the federal government announced its decision to continue the naira-for-crude policy.

In response, Dangote Refinery reduced its ex-depot price from N880 to N865 per litre, stirring hope among Nigerians.

For the second time in a week, Dangote Refinery reduced its gantry price again by N30 to N835, effective immediately.

This move was in response to multiple factors, like the drop in global oil prices, and the landing costs of imported fuel dropping below the refinery’s price.

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The NNPC also responded with a price cut on Wednesday, and gradually, Nigerians are returning to the price war, where each player tried to offer the best prices possible.

Naira-for-crude to continue

Even more promising is that the government statement confirmed the naira-for-crude policy to now be a long-term arrangement after the earlier suspension.

In its statement last week, the Ministry of Finance noted that the naira-for-crude policy is a long-term strategy to reduce dependence on FX for petroleum, not just a temporary measure.

Wale Edun, the Minister for Finance, also stated that a meeting had been held to review challenges in implementation and find solutions to enable sustainable local refining in the drive for energy security.

Cheaper fuel in sight in Nigeria

Marketers and stakeholders predict that as the global oil prices keep dropping, Nigerians could see fuel prices crash as low as N650.

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They noted that when crude prices drop to around $50 per barrel, Nigerians could see fuel prices fall to N800 per litre or lower.

As of Wednesday, April 16, 2025, Brent oil had already dropped to about $65 per barrel again.

Landing cost of imported fuel drops in response

Amid these developments, marketers dealing in imported fuel have also indicated that a price drop is possible in the coming weeks.

Recall that the landing cost of imported petrol declined to N853 per litre on Tuesday, inclusive of all costs, including shipping and logistics.

This placed them in a position to compete with the Dangote Refinery since the price was below the price offered by the local refinery. But Dangote Refinery responded swiftly with a price cut to N835.

Prices could drop to N700/litre in Nigeria

Mr. Olatide Jeremiah, an oil and gas expert, told The PUNCH that, had it not been for the earlier suspension of the naira-for-crude deal, fuel prices could have already dropped to N700 due to the ongoing price war.

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He added that the sudden price change from the refinery might create some problems for the depot owners since they may be forced to sell off the old stock in their tank farms at breakeven or a loss.

But with the renewal of the naira-for-crude coming at the same time as the decline in global crude prices, Olatide noted that prices could get to N700/litre in no time.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said in a phone chat that if crude price gets as low as $50 per barrel, Nigerians can be sure of buying fuel between N650 and N700 per litre.

Ukadike noted that the price cuts from Dangote Refinery were expected after the renewal of the naira-for-crude deal, but that the importers, depot owners and other players will take more losses in the fallout.

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Cheaper fuel expected as landing cost drops

In related news, Nigerians can expect another drop in the pump price of fuel as marketers have rushed to import 156 million litres.

This is because of a decline in the landing costs, and it is now cheaper than the price offered by Dangote Refinery.

The competition between importers of fuel and the Dangote Refinery continues to trigger more price drops, week after week.

Proofreading by James Ojo, copy editor at Legit.ng.

Source: Legit.ng