'Drill, baby, drill': Trump policy poses risks, opportunities for oil industry

'Drill, baby, drill': Trump policy poses risks, opportunities for oil industry

Donald Trump ran on opening up the United States to more petroleum development, but the oil industry does not always embrace additional drilling
Donald Trump ran on opening up the United States to more petroleum development, but the oil industry does not always embrace additional drilling. Photo: SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/Getty Images via AFP/File
Source: AFP

Donald Trump's election as US president brings back a champion of the oil industry to the White House, but experts warn that his push for low prices could be at odds with petroleum companies' priorities.

On the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly said he would "unleash" the US oil sector by boosting production and curbing the move towards renewable energy pushed by outgoing president Joe Biden.

"We will have an administration that will work with the US oil and gas industry and not disparage them by calling them war profiteers or price gougers like they were called by Biden," said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates.

"I will lower the cost of energy," Trump said at the Republican National Convention. "We will drill, baby, drill."

Read also

Trump's win aided by a relentless focus on the cost of living

The president-elect's vow to press for aggressive oil and gas development is, however, something experts say is not the main priority of a sector that has been criticized in the past for not carefully investing capital.

"Producers have plenty of acreage they're sitting on that they could be drilling, and some of it they're drilling, but they're also trying to placate their shareholders," said Stewart Glickman of CFRA Research. "And the shareholders want dividends and buybacks just as much as they want volume growth."

A significant increase in output -- already at record highs -- risks glutting the market depending on how medium-term demand evolves in places like China, where the economic outlook is uncertain.

"The problem is the capital markets," said Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management. "Investors don't want them to do that (raise production) because they want to get paid."

Read also

As Musk's big Trump bet pays off, US government faces 'hardcore' reform

Higher output could add to downward pressure on oil prices at a time when the strong dollar is also expected to weigh on the commodity.

Pressure to produce

US oil output began heading significantly higher in the 2010s with the emergence of shale production, but the domestic industry has faced obstacles along the way.

With shale booming, Saudi Arabia opened the spigots enough to send crude prices down to $26 a barrel in 2016.

That tumble in prices reverberated through the oil industry, leading to multiple bankruptcies.

Darren Woods, chief executive of ExxonMobil, said last week that industry investment is more influenced by its drive for profitability than regulatory questions.

A significant increase in output risks glutting the market depending on how medium-term demand evolves
A significant increase in output risks glutting the market depending on how medium-term demand evolves. Photo: Frederic J. BROWN / AFP
Source: AFP

"I don't think the level of production in the US is being constrained by external restrictions," Woods said. "I think it is being driven by the internal discipline of the industry."

Glickman expressed skepticism that Trump would alter the industry's approach to investment, which is to only boost drilling when higher oil prices call for it.

Read also

Trump's climate denial and green rollbacks poised to fuel warming

But O'Grady said the administration will push to bring crude prices lower, perhaps to between $50 to $60 a barrel, leading to lower gasoline prices.

"I suspect they're going to figure out a way to get what they want and produce more and bring down the price," O'Grady said. "The industry doesn't necessarily want that, but they may not have a whole lot of choice."

Another source of unease in the sector is Trump's confrontational approach on trade, which could lead to higher tariffs, particularly on items from China.

Tariff hikes discussed by the president-elect "would likely trigger slower economic growth both in the US and globally, reducing demand for liquid fuels, driving down oil prices, and ultimately affecting the refining industry," said Wood Mackenzie, an energy data analytics company.

The industry does, however, stand poised to benefit from Trump's expected retreat from energy transition investments favored by the Biden administration.

Read also

Mexico girds for tariffs, migrant deportations after Trump win

"There is a case to be made for oil prices going higher" over the medium term, according to Glickman.

PAY ATTENTION: Сheck out news that is picked exactly for YOU ➡️ find the “Recommended for you” block on the home page and enjoy!

Source: AFP

Authors:
AFP avatar

AFP AFP text, photo, graphic, audio or video material shall not be published, broadcast, rewritten for broadcast or publication or redistributed directly or indirectly in any medium. AFP news material may not be stored in whole or in part in a computer or otherwise except for personal and non-commercial use. AFP will not be held liable for any delays, inaccuracies, errors or omissions in any AFP news material or in transmission or delivery of all or any part thereof or for any damages whatsoever. As a newswire service, AFP does not obtain releases from subjects, individuals, groups or entities contained in its photographs, videos, graphics or quoted in its texts. Further, no clearance is obtained from the owners of any trademarks or copyrighted materials whose marks and materials are included in AFP material. Therefore you will be solely responsible for obtaining any and all necessary releases from whatever individuals and/or entities necessary for any uses of AFP material.