Standard Bank Predicts New Exchange Rate for Naira, Sets FX Inflow at $5.1 Billion in 3 Months
- A new report by Standard Bank, Africa’s largest banking group, has projected that Nigeria would experience a vast FX inflow in the second half of this year
- The report said that a loan facility from the World Bank, NNPC-Afreximbank deal, and Eurobond sale would contribute to the inflow
- The bank pegged the naira exchange rate at N1,219 per dollar by December 24, 2024
Legit.ng’s Pascal Oparada has reported on tech, energy, stocks, investment, and the economy for over a decade.
A report by Standard Bank predicts that the Nigerian foreign exchange market will see a significant influx of capital in the second half of the year.
The report predicts $5.1 billion in funding inflows into the Nigerian economy in the second quarter of this year.
Source: Getty Images
Top sources of the FX inflows
The banking group forecasts a foreign inflow of $5.5 billion into Nigeria from Eurobond sales and the NNPC crude payment facility from Afreximbank.
The bank projected, based on previous Eurobond issuances, that the country may issue between $3 billion and $5 billion in a dollar-denominated local bond this year.
Also, the balance of $1.05 billion from the NNPC crude pre-payment facility in May 2024 is a source of the bank’s projection of the FX inflow.
It added that Afreximbank had authenticated the availability of crude oil for the facility.
World Bank to approve new loan for Nigeria
The report said the World Bank board will meet on June 13, 2024, to consider the final approval of Nigeria’s request for a $2.25 billion loan, consisting of $1.50 billion.
According to the bank, the current exchange rate volatility might result from the rise in geopolitical conflicts in April when Iran attacked Israel, prompting foreign investors to divest their naira assets from the country quickly.
ThisDay reports that Africa’s largest bank said the naira appreciated for most of April after depreciating earlier in the year.
Naira to exchange for N1,219 per dollar
The Standard Bank report said the inflows dipped after two consecutive months of increase, dropping by 48.1% monthly to $1.95 billion in April after reaching a 50-month high in March.
The bank forecasts that the naira will close at N1,219 per dollar by December 24, 2024, and high inflation, warning of increased off-risk settlement due to increased geopolitical tensions, which may refuse foreign portfolio investment supporting the naira recently.
The report comes amid a decline in the naira's value for seven consecutive weeks, which overturned its ranking as the world's best-performing currency in April 2024.
UK group predicts naira to hit N2,000/$
Legit.ng earlier reported that the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has stated five critical risks for Nigeria that could seriously affect the actualisation of essential goals of peace, economic progress, and development in the coming months.
The report said that the Nigerian currency would cross the N2000 per dollar threshold by the end of the year, and the risks of Boko Haram activities spreading from the Northeast to central Nigeria,
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