International Risk Analysts on Lagos Becoming Target for Boko Haram
It seems that attacks carried out by the Nigerian-born terrorist network Boko Haram are becoming bolder, targeting more and more regions of Nigeria. International risk analysts have tried to calculate which area could become the next important objective for the sect, and why.
Roddy Barclay and Thomas Hansen are senior analysts at Control Risks, the global risk consultancy. The duo have penned an article for the Forbes Magazine entitled Contemplating Boko Haram's Next Move. In it, the security analysts look closely at Lagos as the next potential destination in Boko Haram's deadly procession across Nigeria.
First, it seems that Lagos is "insulated—if not removed—from the security concerns," as the sect usually raids the opposite end of Nigeria's territory. Even Abuja seems to be more prone to the attacks, as it is "conveniently" located in the middle of the country. Investors still show much interest in Lagos despite the "deteriorating security situation in much of Nigeria".
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However, Barclay and Hansen then say a new era may have started since the alleged suicide bomb attack on a fuel tank facility on the outskirts of Lagos in late June.
The researchers note that there are plenty of reasons for Boko Haram leaders to decide to carry out attacks in Lagos. Any security lapse at the forthcoming February widescale presidential election campaign may become a perfect opportunity for the terrorists to mar the image and credibility of President Goodluck Jonathan. By targeting Nigeria's commercial core, the terrorists might easily "disrupt the economy." The subsequent government crackdown or reciprocal violence "against the city's many northern migrants" would only add fuel to fire.
The authors of the study acknowledge that Boko Haram might encounter certain difficulties while trying to impact Lagos, as "local militants lack sophistication" and "the social fabric of the city is far less hospitable to the kind of parochial religious conservatism" which allowed the group to thrive in other regions of Nigeria. They are, however, quick to point out that about 4,000 economic migrants arrive there every day and may become (or already be) susceptible to the "shared grievances that Boko Haram’s leaders have used to rally support."
"Local militant networks are a growing concern in Lagos. Terrorism-related arrests in the area over the last 18 months suggest that while such networks may lack sophistication, they are intent on staging attacks in the city," the report reads.
The analysts then make a remark on how the security apparatus has "ramped up" in Lagos, mentioning thorough searches, effective intelligence collection, more or less frequent raids on suspected supporters of militants. Also, heightened security in Ikoyi and Victoria Island certainly make them a difficult target for the terrorists.
"These measures will certainly make an attack more difficult, but Lagos is a large, diverse city, and there are limits to what the police can detect," the researchers then warn, adding, "The absence of a strong local support base suggests that any Boko Haram action in Lagos would be occasional, rather than forming a sustained campaign."
Militants are more likely to focus on "softer" targets such as churches, bus stations, bridges, markets or police stations. But, should Boko Haram capabilities in Lagos improve, they could become increasingly likely to seek out high-profile targets, such as a commercial hotel or a critical infrastructure facility.
In conclusion, the risk analysts suggest that companies doing business in Nigeria should "prompt a review of an organization's risk profile." Companies that have mitigation measures in place are more immune to the immediate risk to personnel, disruption of business activities, damaged investor perceptions, complicated financing and restricted travel in and out of the country in case of a high-profile incident.
Source: Legit.ng
