Key Trends From Nigeria's New Trading Data, As Trade Surplus Hit 17-Year High

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released its foreign trade-in goods statistics for 2024.

According to the bureau, Nigeria recorded a trading volume of N138.03 trillion in 2024, the highest in a very long while.

The latest figures also showed a remarkable increase in imports and exports, pushing the country's trade surplus to N16.9 trillion the highest level in 17 years.

The trade volume of 2024, is more than doubling the N66.82 trillion total trade value recorded in 2023.

Here is a snapshot of the trade volume since 2020

This analysis examines the key trends that shaped Nigeria's trade with a focus on the 4th quarter of 2024.

Below are the ten key trends shaping Nigeria’s foreign trade performance:

Trade surplus

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NBS reported that Nigeria’s trade balance was positive in Q4 2024, standing at N3.42 trillion, although this marks a 34.86% decline compared to the previous quarter.

Crude oil in export earnings worth N13.78 trillion in Q4 alone was a key driver of the surplus.

While non-oil exports accounted for 31.13% of total exports, suggesting a gradual but insufficient diversification away from crude oil dependency.

Rising Imports, but slower than exports

Imports saw an 83.24% year-on-year increase in Q4 2024, reaching N16.59 trillion. Key drivers of this growth included:

• Manufactured goods (N8.47 trillion), up 113.34% YoY.
• Raw materials (N2.10 trillion), rising 118.17% YoY.
• Agricultural imports (N1.09 trillion), growing 53.35% YoY.

The largest import sources remained China (27.80%), followed by India (11.43%), Belgium, the U.S., and France.

Exports in Q4 recorded a slight dip

Total exports in Q4 2024 reached N20.01 trillion, up 57.67% YoY, but 2.55% lower than Q3. This slight decline suggests that export momentum may be slowing. Key trends include:

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• Crude oil exports (N13.78 trillion), up 33.68% YoY.
• Agricultural exports (N1.54 trillion), surged 232.02% YoY, with cocoa beans leading the charge.
• Raw material exports (N671.12 billion), up 103.73% YoY.
• Manufactured exports (N494.22 billion), showing an annual increase but declining 52.54% QoQ.

Trading partners

In Q4, Europe (43.33%) remained the top destination for Nigerian exports, led by The Netherlands, France, and Spain.

Asia (27.79%) followed, with key buyers including India and Indonesia.

Africa (10.20%) saw growing trade, with exports largely directed to South Africa, Ivory Coast, and Senegal.

Declining mineral product imports

A notable trend was the consistent decline in mineral product imports throughout 2024, falling from N5.83 trillion in Q3 to N4.92 trillion in Q4.

This may signal increased local refining capacity or substitution efforts.

Agriculture and raw materials exports Surge

Agricultural exports increased by 232.02% year-on-year, reaching N1.54 trillion in Q4 2024, driven by cocoa, sesame seeds, and other key commodities.

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Raw material exports also rose by 103.73%, reflecting Nigeria’s efforts to diversify its trade base.

Manufacturing goods export

Manufactured goods exports saw a 110.34% increase year-on-year but dropped by 52.54% quarter-on-quarter to N494.22 billion.

Oil products still dominate trade

Oil products accounted for 86.48% of total exports in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The NBS stated that Nigeria exported N13.7 trillion worth of crude oil, N6.3 trillion worth of non-crude oil products, and N2.8 trillion worth of other goods.

Nigeria’s oil sales in trouble

Legit.ng previously reported that President Donald Trump has planned an executive order and a declaration of an energy emergency to boost US oil and gas production, which could negatively impact Nigeria’s demand and revenue.

The development comes as oil prices declined to $80 per barrel from $83 per barrel on Monday, January 20, 2025, as traders anticipated Donald Trump's clarification of his agenda.

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The US is a bulk buyer of Nigeria’s oil, as data shows that the country led the list of top buyers in 2024.

Source: Legit.ng